Russia Holds All Cards in Trump Talks
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The Kremlin says a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his American counterpart Donald Trump could happen soon. Why does Russia have the upper hand?“Russian military territorial gains show the increasing weakness of the Ukrainian forces,” Paolo Raffone, a strategic analyst and director of the CIPI Foundation in Brussels, tells Sputnik, adding that “it was not unforeseeable.” Russia’s front line advances: On July 31, strategic Chasov Yar in the Donetsk People’s Republic was liberated, opening the road to Kramatorsk and Slavyansk Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) is encircled But battlefield shifts aren’t the only factor shaping talks. On the global stage: Russia expands partnerships with BRICS, SCO and Eurasian groups and is far from isolatedBRICS calls US tariff bluff, pledging closer ties with Russia Russia’s economy remains resilient, dedollarizing and decoupling from the West What could Trump bring to the table? Raffone lists several options: Gradual lifting of sanctions and Russia’s reintegration into trade Indefinite suspension of Ukraine’s NATO membership bid Restart US-Russia relations to renew or replace expiring treaties Create a new strategic security framework for Europe
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US-Russian Talks Will be Shaped by Reality on the Ground in Ukraine
"Capturing Chasov Yar and advancing in the [Krasnoarmeysk] direction gives Putin battlefield momentum, which he can use to project strength in negotiations," Hall Gardner, Professor and Chair of the Department of International and Comparative Politics, American University of Paris, tells Sputnik.
The pundit notes that Russia is unlikely to accept any ceasefire agreement until it has achieved its basic goals for the special military operation, including the complete liberation of Donbass, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions and ensuring Crimea’s security. “It’s very unlikely Putin will soften his conditions just because Trump is willing to meet, especially while Russian forces are advancing,” Gardner says. What would be the focus of the talks? “They would likely focus on Ukraine primarily, but could easily expand into a wider dialogue about security architecture, arms control after New START and the collapse of the INF treaty, and even spheres of influence,” the pundit suggests.
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US Has No Cards to Play
Russia was winning the Ukraine conflict on its own terms well before the recent sharp increase in territorial gains, international relations and Russian affairs analyst Gilbert Doctorow tells Sputnik.“But now with the undeniable territorial gains which even the Western newspapers are daily recording, of course this strengthens the Russian negotiating position,” the pundit stresses.Doctorow rules out Russian leaders making any compromises on Ukraine at Thursday’s Kremlin meeting with Steve Witkoff. “The United States and its allies have no strategic ‘cards’ to play against Russia,” the pundit explains. “But the talks can be so arranged as to present the US in less humiliating terms.” A tangible shift in US-Russia relations is possible, Doctorow argues. What will the talks focus on? The talks will center primarily on the broader dialogue of European security Only after there is agreement can there be detailed discussions of territorial and other aspects of a settlement
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