New Hampshire: Nikki Haley’s Last Stand?
Lisa Hultgren, the Derry, N.H. town moderator, loads a vote counting machine into a cart, which stores the paper ballots, while testing vote counting machines before the New Hampshire primary at the Derry Municipal Center, Tuesday, Jan. 16, 2024. At left is Tina Guilford, Derry town clerk and at center is Lynne Gagnon, Derry deputy town clerk
After former US President Donald Trump’s historically large win in Iowa, all eyes are turning to New Hampshire. The famously independent state may be the last best hope for Trump’s opponents.On Tuesday, the first primary in the Nation will go a long way to deciding if any candidate has a chance of making the Republican primary a real contest with frontrunner former US President Donald Trump.While Iowa allocated its delegates last week, that state uses a caucus system, which is a set meeting and open, ranked voting system. New Hampshire is the first state with a real primary, including a secret ballot.
Where Things Stand
AmericasGOP Presidential Hopeful Vivek Ramaswamy Drops Out of 2024 Race16 January, 04:40 GMTAside from Trump, former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis remain on the ballot. Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy dropped out after coming in fourth in Iowa, choosing to endorse Trump.The two debates that were scheduled before the contest have been canceled. Trump has declined to participate in any of the Republican debates and Nikki Haley, who came in third in Iowa, said she would only debate Trump or current US President Joe Biden. That left DeSantis as the only qualified candidate willing to participate.Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, the first three states to vote, are largely considered to be the most important dates in the primary season before Super Tuesday. The three early states typically separate the contenders from the pretenders. With Trump’s massive national lead, Haley or DeSantis will need a victory to show voters that they are worth coming out to the polls for when their state holds its primary.The latest polls are not good news for anyone hoping Haley or DeSantis will pull off an upset in New Hampshire. The most recent Suffolk University poll, held January 18-19, showed Trump with a large and growing lead with 53% support in the state. Haley came in second with 36% and DeSantis was a distant third, pulling 7%.A previous Suffolk University poll from January 16-17 showed Trump with 50%.Haley supporters had reason to hope earlier this week when an American Research Group poll showed the former UN Ambassador in a dead heat with Trump, but that poll now appears to be an aberration. Polls taken before the American Research Group poll also showed Trump with a significant lead, as did a recently taken Saint Anselm College poll.After Trump’s historically large win in Iowa and a disappointing performance by Haley, she will need to massively outperform the current polls to continue anything resembling a competitive campaign going into South Carolina and then onto Super Tuesday.
What About The Independents and Democrats?
Some Democratic figures, most prominently Bill Kristol, have been encouraging Independents and Democrats to switch their party affiliation and vote for Haley in an attempt to prevent Trump from winning the nomination.“We only care about damaging Donald Trump,” Robert Schwartz, cofounder of PrimaryPivot, a SuperPAC which is encouraging voters in the state to vote against Trump told US media. “For better or for worse, the only thing you can do if you really want to stop Trump is to vote for Haley.”Trump referenced this tactic during a recent campaign stop in Portsmouth on Wednesday. “Nikki Haley is counting on Democrats and liberals to infiltrate your Republican primary,” Trump said.While it is too late for Democrats in New Hampshire to switch their affiliation and vote in the Republican primary, around 3,500 already have and independent and undeclared voters can choose to vote in either (but not both) major party primaries.
AmericasDeSantis Admits to Faulty 2024 Election Strategy: ‘I Should Have Gone on Everything’18 January, 23:28 GMTDespite the movement, Haley will need an unprecedented percentage of independent voters to upset Trump. In the 2016 primary, Trump won the highest share of independent voters in New Hampshire.
The New Hampshire Democratic primary is also held on Tuesday, but the DNC has declared that its delegates will not be counted after the state refused to move the date to comply with a national party's plan to make South Carolina the first state to vote.
South Carolina and Beyond
DeSantis has seemingly chalked New Hampshire up as a lost cause and is spending the weekend campaigning in South Carolina where he hopes the state’s heavy evangelical presence will help him revive his flagging campaign.While New Hampshire has been described as the last stand for DeSantis and Haley, that is not entirely true. Even if they get trounced in New Hampshire, a turnaround in South Carolina could change the makeup of the race. However, a poor performance in New Hampshire makes that much less likely.
The Final CountdownDeSantis Withdraws from New Hampshire’s GOP Primary While Haley Steers Clear of DebateYesterday, 05:40 GMTBut DeSantis is pinning his hopes on that exact scenario and it is Haley’s home state so typically, she should perform relatively well there. But the polls have yet to bear that out. Every recent poll has Trump with a massive lead, averaging out to a 36-point according to a poll aggregator.To make matters worse for Trump’s opponents, South Carolina Senator Tim Scott endorsed Trump in the state, solidifying his hold there.This may be why New Hampshire is being portrayed as the last possible state where Trump’s nomination could be derailed. Despite DeSantis’ focus and Haley’s roots there, Trump has seemingly sewed up the state, unless New Hampshire upends the race’s narrative.Haley and DeSantis have until Tuesday to make that happen.
